TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$181,481,432
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,827,991,073
405,996
Markets across
40,551
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,368
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
This set of markets tracks the performance of individual players in a specific football game, focusing on how many receiving yards each player accumulates. Participants can bet on whether a player will meet or exceed certain yardage thresholds, with payouts scaling based on actual performance. The structure allows for nuanced predictions about player contributions in the contest.
These markets resolve based on the total receiving yards accumulated by specified players during the Kansas City vs Las Vegas Pro Football game scheduled for October 4, 2026. Each market operates as a scalar contract where Yes positions pay $0.0025 per receiving yard recorded, capped at $1.00 for up to 400 yards. No positions receive $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts are proportional to contract holdings and calculated after the game concludes, with examples provided such as 80 yards yielding $0.20 Yes and $0.80 No, and zero yards resulting in $0.00 Yes and $1.00 No. All markets are independent, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the NFL.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market is driven by individuals trading on their own beliefs about the likely outcome. If a significant number of traders believe a particular receiving yard total is more or less likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price on Kalshi will adjust accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public opinion shifts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yard totals for the Chiefs-Raiders game. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more trades occur, the prices adjust to reflect the changing beliefs of the participants. The market depth, displayed on the dashboard, shows the available buy and sell orders at various price points, giving traders insight into potential price movements.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final receiving yard totals for the Chiefs and Raiders game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official statistics from the NFL will be used to determine which receiving yard ladder outcomes were achieved. Traders holding contracts for winning outcomes will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for losing outcomes will not. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on publicly available data.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Injury reports for key wide receivers on both the Chiefs and Raiders are major catalysts, as they directly impact the potential for receiving yards. Weather conditions, particularly wind or rain, could also affect passing games and thus receiving yard totals. Unexpected news regarding quarterback performance or changes in offensive strategy could also shift market sentiment. Finally, large-volume trades from informed participants can create significant price swings in this market.