TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 7:48 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how often they throw interceptions. It allows participants to speculate on whether a player will make multiple errors in passing plays during the match. The outcome depends entirely on the players' accuracy and decision-making under pressure.
All markets in this event resolve based on the number of passing interceptions recorded by Kirk Cousins or Patrick Mahomes during the Kansas City vs Las Vegas Pro Football game scheduled for October 4, 2026. For any market, if the referenced quarterback is active but does not take a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap — even if that snap is nullified by a penalty — the market resolves according to the actual number of interceptions recorded during the game. Each market has a specific threshold: a "1+" market resolves to Yes if the quarterback records one or more interceptions, while "2+" and "3+" markets require two or three respectively. These thresholds create tiered outcomes that reflect varying levels of predictive confidence or risk for participants. The markets are independent of official league affiliations, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes – in this case, the number of passing interceptions. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time estimate of expectations. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for a contract that pays out if the corresponding outcome happens.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing interceptions thrown during the Kansas City versus Las Vegas game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the actual number of interceptions will receive a payout, while those with losing contracts will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding the quarterbacks’ health, particularly concerning their arm strength or decision-making, would be a major catalyst. Changes in weather conditions, such as strong winds or heavy rain, could increase the likelihood of interceptions. Unexpected defensive strategies employed by either team could also shift the odds. Finally, any late-breaking news about key offensive players being injured or limited in their playing time could influence how traders price contracts in this market.