TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:47 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting which player or defensive unit will score the first touchdown for the Las Vegas team in an upcoming football game against Kansas City. Each market is tied to a specific participant, with outcomes determined by their performance during the game.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified player or defensive unit scores the first touchdown for Las Vegas in the game. If the designated participant is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price before the game starts. Once a participant takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market outcome depends solely on whether they score the first touchdown. If no touchdowns are scored by Las Vegas during the game, the 'No Touchdown' market resolves to Yes, and all other participant markets resolve to No. These rules apply uniformly across all markets for this event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different players scoring the first touchdown. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that player being the first to score, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders believe a particular player is likely to score, the price of their contract increases. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations in real-time, providing a forward-looking assessment of the event’s potential outcomes.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine which player scored the first touchdown in the game between Kansas City and Las Vegas. The official game statistics will be used to verify the outcome. Any scoring plays that are later overturned by officials will not be considered in determining the resolution of this market. The resolution will be based on the official game record.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries, particularly to key offensive players for Las Vegas, would likely cause shifts in the odds. Changes in weather conditions, such as strong winds or heavy rain, could also influence the market, potentially favoring a running game and impacting which players are likely to score. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could lead to adjustments in trader sentiment and, consequently, the prices within this market. Public perception and betting trends in traditional sportsbooks can also play a role.