TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 7:41 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional football game between two teams, focusing specifically on the margin of victory. It categorizes possible results based on how many points separate the winning and losing teams. The event resolves based on the final score of the game, including any overtime periods.
The event determines the outcome of the professional football game between Kansas City and Denver based on the point differential between the two teams at the end of the full game, including overtime. If Denver wins by exactly 0 points (a tie), between 1 and 6 points, between 7 and 14 points, or 15 or more points, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Similarly, if Kansas City wins by between 1 and 6 points, between 7 and 14 points, or 15 or more points, the respective market resolves to Yes. Each market is defined by a specific range of point differentials, and the market resolves based on which range the actual point differential falls into. The event is not affiliated with or endorsed by the governing league, and all trademarks and brand names belong to their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and analysis beyond what is readily available to sportsbooks. While sportsbook odds are set by professionals, this market allows a broader range of participants to express their beliefs about the outcome. It’s common to see prediction market prices move differently than sportsbook lines, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Discrepancies can arise due to differing risk assessments or the influence of factors not fully captured by traditional sports betting models.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different winning margins. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that margin occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to find an equilibrium that represents the collective prediction. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, with buyers pushing prices up and sellers pushing them down based on their individual beliefs and risk tolerance.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final winning margin of the Kansas City vs. Denver game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the league, and will determine which contracts pay out. Traders who correctly predicted the winning margin will receive a payout based on the contract's price at the time of resolution. It’s important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding key player injuries to either the Chiefs or the Broncos would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in coaching strategies, weather forecasts for the game day, or even significant shifts in public perception could also move the market. Unexpected performance in other games leading up to the event could also impact trader sentiment. Monitoring these signals and assessing their potential impact on the final winning margin is crucial for informed trading in this market.