TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 7:31 PM EST
Kalshi
The highly anticipated game between Kansas City and Denver features several players and teams with chances to score touchdowns, drawing attention from fans and bettors. The performance of these players and teams in finding the end zone will significantly impact various betting markets.
Each market resolves to Yes if the specified player or team records at least one touchdown during the full game, including overtime. Contracts are protected, meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but not after, the contract resolves to the fair price unless the required touchdowns are scored. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. Passing touchdowns do not count as touchdowns scored by the passer, and team defense/special-teams selections settle on actual touchdowns without the player participation exception.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a certain outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price of that outcome will move accordingly. It's common to see discrepancies, particularly before significant events or breaking news impacts perceptions of the game. These differences can present opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people trade, the prices adjust to reflect the collective expectation. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. The market's depth and volume indicate the level of confidence and agreement among traders regarding the potential for touchdowns in this game.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final number of touchdowns scored in the Kansas City versus Denver game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective and transparent outcome. The total number of touchdowns scored by both teams will be the determining factor for settlement. Traders will be able to see the final result and the corresponding payout for their contracts after the game concludes and the data is verified.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Kansas City or Denver teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions impacting passing or scoring, could also shift expectations. Late-breaking news about coaching strategies or defensive adjustments might also play a role. Finally, large volume trades from informed participants could signal shifts in sentiment and lead to price adjustments as we approach Nov 2, 2026.