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OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
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MATCHED EVENTS:
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Kalshi:
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Closed: Nov 1, 8:40 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks rushing yard milestones for specific players in an upcoming football game between Kansas City and Denver. The outcome depends on whether designated players achieve various rushing yard thresholds during the full game, including overtime.
All markets resolve based on whether specified players record particular rushing yard thresholds (ranging from 10+ to 100+) during the entire Kansas City vs Denver Pro Football game scheduled for Nov 1, 2026, including any overtime periods. Each contract is designated as 'protected,' meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but none after halftime (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price set before the game started, unless the player meets the rushing yard requirement, in which case it settles based on actual performance. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract always settles based on actual statistics, irrespective of first-half involvement. Plays nullified by penalties do not count toward participation or yardage. Players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies exclusively to full-game contracts with 'above or at-least' payout criteria.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs, potentially leading to more accurate predictions. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of trading activity. It's common to see this market adjust rapidly to news and analysis, potentially exceeding the speed of sportsbook line movements. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into public perception and potential value.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yard totals, and the price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of its probability. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe a particular outcome is likely, the price of contracts representing that outcome will increase. Conversely, if traders believe an outcome is unlikely, the price will decrease. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market is constantly updated with the latest information.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final rushing yard totals for the Kansas City and Denver game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official NFL statistics will be used to determine the actual rushing yards achieved by both teams. The market will settle to 100% probability for the contract corresponding to the verified rushing yard total. All trading will cease once the official results are available and the outcome is determined, ensuring a clear and transparent resolution process.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports for key running backs on either team would be a primary driver, as would any changes to the teams’ offensive strategies. Unexpected weather conditions, such as heavy rain or snow, could also affect the game plan and influence rushing yardage. News regarding defensive matchups or coaching decisions could also cause price fluctuations. Finally, any late-breaking information about player availability or team tactics will likely be reflected in trading activity, potentially leading to substantial shifts in the market.