TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 7:44 PM EST
Kalshi
In this market, participants wager on the exact number of receptions Kenneth Walker III will achieve in the same game, with payouts determined by a predefined schedule that increases non-linearly. The payout structure rewards accurate predictions more handsomely as the reception count rises.
If Each Yes contract pays per reception by Kenneth Walker III in the Kansas City vs Denver Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 1, 2026. The Yes contracts pay based on this schedule: 0 receptions, $0.0000; 1, $0.0003; 2, $0.0029; 3, $0.0098; 4, $0.0233; 5, $0.0455; 6, $0.0787; 7, $0.1250; 8, $0.1865; 9, $0.2656; 10, $0.3644; 11, $0.4850; 12, $0.6297; 13, $0.8006; 14 or more, $1.0000. Each No contract pays $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Yes pays out at most $1.00. Then the market resolves to Yes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs about the likelihood of different outcomes. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously betting on both platforms. However, it’s important to note that prediction markets often incorporate information more quickly than sportsbooks, especially as new information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different reception totals. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, leading to dynamic price movements. The more demand there is for a particular outcome, the higher its price will climb, and vice versa. This creates a real-time assessment of the potential for various reception totals in the game.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final reception totals for the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official game statistics, as reported by a recognized sports data provider, will determine the winning contract(s). The resolution process ensures accuracy and transparency, providing a clear and definitive outcome for all participants. It’s important to monitor the game and official statistics as they become available to understand how this market will settle.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Injury reports for key wide receivers or tight ends on either team would be significant catalysts, as they directly impact the potential for receptions. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also affect passing games and, consequently, reception totals. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in offensive strategy could also move the market. Finally, any news regarding player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to adjustments in trader sentiment and price fluctuations.