TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 6:45 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks which team will be the first to reach 21 points in an upcoming professional football game. It captures the dynamic nature of the contest by focusing on the pace at which each team scores, rather than the final outcome. The resolution depends purely on the first scoring milestone reached during the game.
The event determines whether Denver, Kansas City, or neither team will be the first to score 21 points in the Pro Football game originally scheduled for November 1, 2026. If either Denver or Kansas City reaches 21 points first during the full game, including any overtime periods, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. If neither team achieves this scoring milestone, the 'Neither Team' market resolves to Yes. Postponements are handled such that if the game commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, the market remains open and resolves based on the official final result. If the game does not start within this 48-hour window, the market resolves to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants under varying scheduling circumstances.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each outcome – in this case, Kansas City or Denver reaching 21 points first. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective belief about that outcome’s likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust, creating a dynamic representation of expectations. Higher prices indicate a greater perceived probability, while lower prices suggest a lower probability. The market efficiently incorporates new information as it becomes available, influencing contract prices in real-time.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine which team, Kansas City or Denver, reached 21 points first during the game. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and scoring records. The final score will be verified against credible public sources to determine the winning team in the points race. Traders holding contracts on the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the losing outcome will not.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Kansas City or Denver would likely cause shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team’s offensive style, could also influence trading activity. In-game performance during the early stages of the game – for example, a quick scoring drive by one team – could trigger rapid price movements. Furthermore, any significant public announcements or expert analysis predicting a change in the game’s dynamic could also move this market.