TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$260,393,102
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,894,304,386
408,643
Markets across
39,771
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,493
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 7:39 PM EST
Kalshi
The event tracks passing yard milestones for specific quarterbacks in an upcoming football game. Outcomes depend on whether each player meets or exceeds designated yardage thresholds during the match. Markets resolve based on confirmed statistics at the game's conclusion.
All markets resolve based on whether the named quarterback achieves the specified passing yard threshold in the Kansas City vs Denver Pro Football game scheduled for Nov 1, 2026. If the quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if that play is nullified by penalty—the market resolves strictly according to the actual passing yards recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all yardage thresholds for both Bo Nix and Patrick Mahomes, ensuring consistent evaluation for each market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing yard ranges. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as the event approaches. The current market reflects the collective predictions of all participants.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official passing yardage for the game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on the official statistics released by the NFL, representing the total passing yards achieved by the relevant players during the game. Traders who correctly predicted the passing yardage range will receive a payout based on the final price of their contracts at resolution. The outcome is determined by official data, not by any subjective judgment.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions expected to favor passing or running, could also influence trading activity. Pre-game analysis from experts, and even social media sentiment, can play a role. Unexpected lineup changes or strategic adjustments announced close to game time are also likely to move this market as traders react to the new information and reassess the probabilities of different outcomes.