TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 5:57 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of a specific quarterback in an upcoming football game between two teams. It focuses on how many passing touchdowns the quarterback achieves during the full match, including any overtime periods. The outcome depends solely on the quarterback's ability to meet or exceed designated passing touchdown thresholds.
These markets resolve based on the number of passing touchdowns thrown by Bo Nix in the Kansas City vs Denver Pro Football game scheduled for Nov 1, 2026, with separate thresholds for 1+, 2+, 3+, and 4+ touchdowns. All contracts are designated as 'protected,' meaning if Bo Nix participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the first half (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price set before the game’s kickoff—unless he meets or exceeds the required touchdown threshold, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If Bo Nix participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half participation. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates is subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and this event includes overtime statistics.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning closely with sportsbook odds but sometimes diverging based on unique information or perspectives held by traders. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is undervaluing or overvaluing a particular outcome, the odds in this market will adjust accordingly, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sports betting venues. This can sometimes lead to more accurate predictions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of the corresponding contract will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to accurately reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing touchdowns scored in the Kansas City Chiefs versus Denver Broncos game will be used to determine the winning contract. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the verified results of the game.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries to quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also shift the odds. Furthermore, late-breaking reports about team strategies or coaching decisions could prompt traders to reassess their predictions. Public sentiment, as reflected in sports news and social media, can also play a role in influencing trading activity and, consequently, the market price.