TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 6:34 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the performance of quarterbacks Bo Nix and Patrick Mahomes in an upcoming football game between Kansas City and Denver. The outcomes depend on whether each player achieves specific passing completion thresholds during the contest.
All markets resolve based on the total number of passing completions recorded by the named quarterback during the Kansas City vs Denver Professional Football game originally scheduled for Nov 1, 2026. For each market, if the specified player records the designated number of completions or more, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. If a quarterback is active for the game but does not take a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market settles strictly based on the actual completions recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all markets for both Bo Nix and Patrick Mahomes thresholds (16+, 21+, and 26+ completions).
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a small number of experts, while this market aggregates insights from many participants. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets can sometimes incorporate information that isn’t immediately reflected in sportsbook lines, or account for factors like public perception and late-breaking news differently. Examining both can provide a more comprehensive view of expected outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the number of passing completions. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time assessment of expectations regarding the game’s passing statistics.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final passing completion statistics from the Kansas City Chiefs versus Denver Broncos game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on the official game data, determining which contract accurately predicted the final number of passing completions. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout based on the contract’s price at resolution, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions expected to impact the passing game, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, late-week practice reports detailing player availability and performance, or even strategic adjustments announced by the coaching staffs, could all contribute to fluctuations in the market price as traders react to new information.