TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 7:09 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on determining which team will score the most points in a specific quarter of an upcoming football game between Kansas City and Denver. It highlights the competitive nature of individual quarters within a larger game, where short-term performance can have distinct outcomes.
The market determines the winner of the third quarter in the Kansas City vs Denver Pro Football game scheduled for November 1, 2026. If either Kansas City or Denver scores the most points during that quarter, the respective team's market resolves to Yes. If both teams finish the quarter with equal scores, neither team's market resolves to Yes, and instead the Tie market resolves to Yes. Only points scored during the third quarter count toward these outcomes, emphasizing short-term performance over the full game result.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set their lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market is driven by individuals trading on their own information and beliefs about the Kansas City vs Denver game. Often, prediction markets are considered more accurate than traditional forecasts, as they aggregate diverse perspectives. However, sportsbook odds can sometimes offer value, especially if they diverge significantly from the predictions made in this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about which team will win the 3rd quarter. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy contracts for a particular team, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of victory. Conversely, if more people sell, the price decreases. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the collective intelligence of the traders.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the winner of the 3rd quarter of the Kansas City vs Denver game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official game results, as reported by a trusted sports news source, will determine which outcome is considered correct for the purposes of this market. Traders who correctly predicted the 3rd quarter winner will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Kansas City or Denver teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team's playing style, could also shift the odds. Furthermore, in-game performance during the first half of the game, such as a dominant offensive showing by one team, could lead to increased trading activity and a corresponding movement in the market price. Public sentiment and expert analysis can also play a role.