TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 6:26 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Kansas City or Denver during the second quarter of their scheduled football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team to resolve as 'Yes'.
The markets resolve based on the point differential between Kansas City and Denver exclusively during the second quarter of play in their game scheduled for November 1, 2026. For any market where Kansas City is the designated winner, resolution occurs if Kansas City out-scores Denver by more than the specified margin (ranging from 1.5 to 10.5 points). Conversely, markets designating Denver as the winner resolve if Denver out-scores Kansas City by more than the stated margin (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points). Only points scored during the second quarter count toward determining the outcome, regardless of the overall game result. All markets operate independently, meaning each resolves solely based on its own threshold without influence from other markets.
Typically, prediction market odds tend to align with those found at sportsbooks, but often reflect the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ more accurately. Sportsbook odds are set by a relatively small number of professionals, while this market incorporates the views of many individual traders. Therefore, this market can sometimes offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks, especially as new information emerges. Any differences in odds may reflect varying levels of confidence or access to information among market participants and sportsbook operators.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction format, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome of the second quarter spread. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the probability of the ‘yes’ side winning. As more traders participate, the price fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all traders on Kalshi regarding the likelihood of the spread falling within the specified range.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final second quarter spread of the Kansas City vs Denver game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the NFL and widely available through sports news outlets. The market will determine whether the actual spread falls above or below the specified line, and contracts will pay out accordingly to those who correctly predicted the outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Nov 2, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Kansas City or Denver teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also shift the market. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could influence trader sentiment. Even public perception and betting trends reported in the media can contribute to price movements in this market.