TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:53 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting which team’s defense will score the first touchdown in an upcoming professional football game. It includes scenarios where either the Denver Broncos defense, the Kansas City Chiefs defense, or neither defense scores the opening touchdown of the match.
The market determines whether the Denver Broncos defense, the Kansas City Chiefs defense, or neither scores the first touchdown in the professional football game scheduled for November 1, 2026. If the Denver Broncos defense scores the first touchdown, that market resolves to Yes. Similarly, if the Kansas City Chiefs defense scores the first touchdown, their market resolves to Yes. If no touchdowns are scored by either defense throughout the game, the No Touchdown market resolves to Yes, and all other defensive markets resolve to No. Special rules apply if a defensive unit is active but does not take a snap, in which case the market settles at the fair price before the game starts. Once a defensive unit takes a snap, the outcome is determined solely by whether they score the first touchdown. Touchdowns scored on fake punts or field goals by the offensive team do not count toward these markets.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds based on models and public perception, while this market allows individuals to trade on their own informed opinions. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – the odds in this market can adjust more rapidly than traditional sportsbooks. It's common to see this market converge toward the 'true' probability as the event approaches, potentially offering value compared to fixed-odds betting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each player scoring the first touchdown. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective belief about that player's chances. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. The market is designed to be efficient, meaning prices quickly incorporate available knowledge, and the volume of $553,193 indicates the level of interest and activity in this particular event.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the player who legally scores the first touchdown in the game, as determined by official game statistics, will be the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on the official game records and any subsequent reviews by the relevant league authorities. The outcome will be determined by the official scoring record of the game, and not by any subjective interpretation.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries, particularly to key offensive players, would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also influence scoring expectations and therefore the market. Late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could also move prices. Finally, significant betting activity itself – a large influx of volume on a particular player – can drive price changes as traders react to perceived information or momentum.