TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 8:31 PM EST
Kalshi
Two soccer teams compete in a match where the outcome is determined by the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. The result will either see one team victorious or the game ending in a draw.
The event resolves based on the result of the Kansas City vs Bay FC professional NWSL soccer game scheduled for Oct 3, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. If Kansas City wins, the market for Kansas City resolves to Yes. If Bay FC wins, the market for Bay FC resolves to Yes. If the game ends in a tie, the Tie market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over 48 hours away from the original date, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.
Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to be accurate. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamics of each venue. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information than sportsbooks, potentially offering a more efficient forecast of the match's outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the latest information and sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for a contract that pays out if their predicted outcome comes to pass, making it a dynamic representation of collective belief.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Kansas City vs Bay FC match, as declared by the relevant sporting authority. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on losing outcomes will not. The exact payout amount will depend on the price of the contract at the time of resolution.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or shifts in coaching strategies could significantly impact the perceived probabilities. Unexpected weather conditions or even pre-match analysis from sports commentators could also sway traders' opinions. Furthermore, large volume trades from informed participants could create momentum and drive price movements, reflecting new information or a change in sentiment about the Kansas City vs Bay FC match.