TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 7:30 PM EST
Kalshi
In an intense League of Legends match, KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas faces off against LOS. The outcome hinges on who secures victory on the third map, determining the immediate momentum and possibly the overall match result.
The market resolves to Yes if either KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas or LOS wins map 3 of the specified match. If the match or map is postponed beyond 48 hours, cancelled, or forfeited before play begins, the market resolves to the fair market price. If a map begins and is later forfeited, resolution follows the official result from the governing body.
Typically, prediction markets like this one can offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds often reflect public perception and include a 'vig' or commission built into the price. This market, however, represents the aggregated beliefs of informed traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on team rankings and statistics, this market can adjust rapidly to incorporate new information and potentially reveal insights that differ from those found at sportsbooks. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as the event draws closer.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders set the odds by buying and selling contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring. As more people buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as traders react to news, analysis, and each other's positions, creating a real-time assessment of the event’s likelihood. The current price reflects the aggregated beliefs of all participants trading on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of Map 3 in the KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs. LOS match. The winning team will be determined by the game's official scoring system, and that result will be used to settle all outstanding contracts. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand when and how this market will be settled.
Several factors could influence trading in this market leading up to Oct 13, 2026. Any news regarding player form, potential roster changes for either Ilha das Lendas or LOS, or strategic shifts announced by either team could all cause the odds to shift. Unexpected announcements about map vetoes or changes to the game environment could also have a significant impact. Furthermore, major upsets in other matches leading up to this one, or even broader trends in the competitive scene, might influence how traders assess the relative strengths of the teams. This market will resolve once the outcome is verifiable from credible public reporting.