TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$245,601,049
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,405,322
408,349
Markets across
39,583
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,443
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 4:52 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the outcome of a professional KNVB soccer match between JOS Watergraafsmeer and Breda, focusing solely on the result after regulation time. It determines whether either team wins within the standard 90 minutes plus stoppage time, or if the game ends in a tie. The resolution depends exclusively on the final score at the end of regulation, without considering any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event resolves based on the result of the JOS Watergraafsmeer vs Breda professional KNVB soccer game scheduled for October 28, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Three distinct outcomes are possible: a win for JOS Watergraafsmeer, a win for Breda, or a tie. If either team secures a victory within regulation time, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Should the game conclude with an equal score, the Tie market resolves to Yes. In the event the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform. The resolution explicitly excludes extra time and penalty shootout results.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of informed traders, and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance their risk, factoring in a profit margin, while this market is driven purely by participants’ beliefs about the outcome. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook has mispriced a team’s chances, the odds here will adjust accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts leading up to the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each outcome. The price of a contract directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, the price increases, reflecting a higher perceived chance of it happening. Conversely, selling pressure drives the price down. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the JOS Watergraafsmeer vs Breda match in Regulation Time will determine which outcome pays out. The winning team, or a tie, will be verified against official match results and publicly available data. The platform will then distribute funds to those who correctly predicted the result based on the final score at the end of regulation time.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or tactical adjustments announced by the coaches could shift expectations. Unexpected weather conditions on match day, or even significant shifts in public opinion based on pre-game analysis, could also play a role. Furthermore, large volume trades from informed participants could indicate new information or a change in sentiment, causing the odds to move rapidly.