TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$172,394,893
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,821,572,886
404,136
Markets across
40,075
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 2:58 PM EST
Kalshi
This event centers on the margin of victory in the Jordan versus Venezuela match. Analysts will focus on each team's offensive and defensive capabilities to gauge if one side can dominate the other by a significant margin.
Markets resolve based on the goal differential if Jordan or Venezuela wins the professional Intl Friendlies soccer game scheduled for October 6, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. A 'Yes' outcome for Jordan requires winning by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals, while for Venezuela, winning by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals triggers a 'Yes'. Each market has a distinct threshold for victory margins, and all apply the same match timeframe for resolution.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on their own analysis, while this market allows a broader range of participants to weigh in, incorporating diverse information and perspectives. This can lead to discrepancies, particularly as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. It’s common to see prediction markets move more efficiently in response to real-time developments than traditional betting markets, though sportsbook odds remain a valuable point of comparison.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Jordan vs Venezuela game, and the price of each contract reflects the market's current expectation of that outcome's probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price is determined by supply and demand – if more people believe Jordan will win by a certain margin, the price of contracts representing that outcome will increase. Conversely, if sentiment shifts towards Venezuela, the price will fall. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of its participants.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final score of the Jordan vs Venezuela game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the game, specifically the point spread. The platform will then determine which contracts pay out based on whether the actual spread matches the conditions defined in the market. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process based on publicly available information.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before Oct 6, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team would likely have a significant impact. Changes in coaching strategies or unexpected team performance in preceding games could also shift market sentiment. Furthermore, broader factors such as weather conditions or even public betting patterns observed in sportsbooks could contribute to price fluctuations. Unexpected announcements related to player availability or game location could also cause the market to react quickly.