TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 4:33 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Tomas Machac and Liam Draxl in the Jinan, originally scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 1:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Machac' if Tomas Machac advances against Liam Draxl. This market will resolve to 'Liam Draxl' if Liam Draxl advances against Tomas Machac. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Tomas Machac and Liam Draxl in the Jinan, originally scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 1:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Machac' if Tomas Machac advances against Liam Draxl. This market will resolve to 'Liam Draxl' if Liam Draxl advances against Tomas Machac. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on models and a margin for profit, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is undervaluing a particular outcome, they may drive the price on Polymarket in that direction. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before a lot of money has been traded on either side.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing different outcomes of the Machac vs Draxl match, and the price of these shares reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more shares are traded, the price adjusts to find an equilibrium point where buyers and sellers agree. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the market's collective assessment of each player's chances of winning, and is influenced by news, analysis, and overall sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Machac vs Draxl match, including any potential forfeits or other circumstances that determine the winner. The platform will look to established tennis authorities and results reporting to verify the outcome and settle the market accordingly.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 23, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or even significant shifts in public opinion could cause traders to reassess their probabilities. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players, or even broader trends in tennis performance, might also impact trading activity. Major upsets in related events or compelling analysis from tennis experts could all contribute to movement in this market.