TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 2:39 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Hayato Matsuoka and James McCabe in the Jinan, China, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 12:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hayato Matsuoka' if Hayato Matsuoka advances against James McCabe. This market will resolve to 'James McCabe' if James McCabe advances against Hayato Matsuoka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Hayato Matsuoka and James McCabe in the Jinan, China, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 12:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hayato Matsuoka' if Hayato Matsuoka advances against James McCabe. This market will resolve to 'James McCabe' if James McCabe advances against Hayato Matsuoka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially as an event approaches. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or marketing considerations into their lines, while this market is driven purely by individuals wagering their own capital. However, initial sportsbook lines can sometimes offer value before the prediction market fully incorporates all available information. It's common to see the odds on Polymarket converge with sportsbook lines as the event draws nearer, but divergences can and do occur, presenting potential arbitrage opportunities.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the Matsuoka vs McCabe match. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more shares purchased for a particular outcome, the higher its price rises, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly updated based on the collective intelligence of the traders participating. The current volume traded indicates the level of interest in this event.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Matsuoka vs McCabe match, as reported by recognized sports authorities. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine the winning outcome and distribute payouts accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result, as this will be the basis for settlement on Polymarket.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in coaching strategy, or even weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the players’ form or fitness levels would likely have a significant impact. Public opinion, as reflected in polls or expert analyses, can also influence trading activity. Furthermore, large trades on Polymarket itself can create momentum and drive price movements, so monitoring the order book is also worthwhile.