TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$172,394,893
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,821,572,886
404,136
Markets across
40,075
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 9:00 AM EST
Kalshi
This prediction market concerns the winner of Game 3 in a best-of-five League of Legends match between BNK FEARX and JD Gaming during the Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs. The market resolves to the team that wins Game 3, or to a 50-50 split if the game is canceled, forfeited, or not completed.
The event resolves based on the winner of map 3 in the Demacia Cup Global Invitational 2026 match between JD Gaming and BNK FEARX, scheduled for October 12, 2026. If either team wins the specified map, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. If the match or map is postponed beyond 48 hours, cancelled, or forfeited before play begins, the market resolves to the fair market price. If a map begins and is later forfeited, the result follows the official outcome published by the tournament organizer. Kalshi is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
This market refers to the LoL Quarterfinal 1 match between BNK FEARX and JD Gaming in the Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "BNK FEARX" if BNK FEARX win the match against JD Gaming. This market will resolve to "JD Gaming" if JD Gaming win the match against BNK FEARX. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 26, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 12, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Differences in prices between Kalshi and Predict can arise from several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and fee structures, which can influence how traders value the same outcome. Kalshi and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Furthermore, the volume traded on each platform can vary significantly, impacting price discovery. Currently, Kalshi shows a higher volume of $1,172,927 compared to Predict, potentially contributing to differing assessments of the likelihood of either JD Gaming or BNK FEARX winning Map 3. These variances create opportunities for arbitrage traders.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market before it resolves. Any news regarding player form, team strategies, or potential roster changes for either JD Gaming or BNK FEARX could shift perceptions of their chances. In-game performance during the earlier maps of the series will also be a significant catalyst, as traders react to observed strengths and weaknesses. Unexpected drafts or early game advantages could lead to rapid price adjustments on Kalshi and Predict as traders update their assessments of the likely winner of Map 3.