TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
James Madison wins by over 7.5 points
- Kalshi
James Madison wins by over 7.5 points - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 5, 2026
Time left: 02d:22h:40m
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This set of markets tracks the point differential in a college football game, allowing participants to bet on how decisively either team will win. Each market corresponds to a specific point margin threshold, enabling varied levels of risk and reward based on predicted outcomes.
All markets resolve based on the official final point differential of the James Madison vs Southern Miss college football game scheduled for Nov 5, 2026. If James Madison wins, markets resolve to Yes only if the victory margin exceeds the specified threshold (ranging from 1.5 to 35.5 points). Conversely, if Southern Miss wins, markets resolve to Yes only if their margin exceeds the specified threshold (ranging from 1.5 to 10.5 points). Postponements are handled by allowing the game to proceed within 48 hours of its original start time; if not started within this window, all markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often converging with—or even anticipating—sportsbook odds. However, differences can emerge due to varying levels of information and market participants. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. If there’s a significant discrepancy, it could indicate differing opinions on the likely outcome or a temporary imbalance in trading activity. It's common to see this market and sportsbook odds align closer to the event date.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread being the final result. Buyers are expressing a belief that the spread is *more* likely than the market currently implies, while sellers believe it’s *less* likely. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand, with higher volume indicating greater interest and potentially more accurate pricing as more information becomes available.
This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread established by the game’s official results will determine which contracts pay out. The market will settle based on the official result of the James Madison vs Southern Miss football game, as reported by a trusted sports data source. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will not.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. News regarding injuries to key players on either the James Madison or Southern Miss teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if severe weather is expected, could also impact the spread. Public sentiment, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, can also play a role, though the market tends to be more heavily influenced by actual trading activity. Any unexpected developments leading up to the game could shift trader expectations and, consequently, the price of contracts.