TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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James Harden's Next Team
kalshi

James Harden's Next Team

Volume:
$248,973

Stays with Cleveland or Retires

 - Kalshi

Stays with Cleveland or Retires - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Stays with Cleveland or Retires

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$109,499
N/A
N/A
$43,812
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Phoenix

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$39,911
N/A
N/A
$23,646
Settled
No
kalshi

Miami

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,164
N/A
N/A
$11,747
Settled
No
kalshi

Houston

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,017
N/A
N/A
$9,967
Settled
No
kalshi

Dallas

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,441
N/A
N/A
$7,973
Settled
No
kalshi

Philadelphia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,310
N/A
N/A
$8,843
Settled
No
kalshi

Boston

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,220
N/A
N/A
$7,019
Settled
No
kalshi

Golden State

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,113
N/A
N/A
$6,891
Settled
No
kalshi

Minnesota

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,914
N/A
N/A
$5,914
Settled
No
kalshi

Atlanta

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,662
N/A
N/A
$4,662
Settled
No
kalshi

Detroit

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,356
N/A
N/A
$4,068
Settled
No
kalshi

Washington

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,734
N/A
N/A
$3,734
Settled
No
kalshi

Orlando

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,451
N/A
N/A
$3,451
Settled
No
kalshi

New Orleans

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,619
N/A
N/A
$2,619
Settled
No
kalshi

Toronto

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,143
N/A
N/A
$2,143
Settled
No
kalshi

Brooklyn

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,813
N/A
N/A
$1,813
Settled
No
kalshi

San Antonio

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,227
N/A
N/A
$1,227
Settled
No
kalshi

Oklahoma City

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,029
N/A
N/A
$1,029
Settled
No
kalshi

Charlotte

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,009
N/A
N/A
$1,009
Settled
No
kalshi

Los Angeles L

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$839
N/A
N/A
$839
Settled
No
kalshi

Denver

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$608
N/A
N/A
$608
Settled
No
kalshi

Portland

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$500
N/A
N/A
$500
Settled
No
kalshi

New York

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$187
N/A
N/A
$187
Settled
No
kalshi

Milwaukee

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$94
N/A
N/A
$94
Settled
No
kalshi

Los Angeles C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$93
N/A
N/A
$93
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 30

Description

Professional basketball player James Harden will either be traded to a different NBA team, remain with his current team, or retire before October 21, 2026.

Kalshi

This event resolves based on James Harden's team affiliation before October 21, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific NBA team or the option to remain with Cleveland or retire. If Harden signs with or is traded to any listed team before the deadline, that team's market resolves to Yes. If he stays with Cleveland or officially retires, the 'Stays with Cleveland or Retires' outcome resolves to Yes. Only one outcome can resolve affirmatively, determined by Harden's actual team status at the time of resolution.

Frequently asked questions

Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on expert analysis and incorporate a margin for profit, while this market allows traders to dynamically adjust probabilities based on new information and collective belief. If sportsbook odds significantly diverge from those seen here, it could indicate a disagreement about the true probability of an event, potentially creating arbitrage opportunities for informed traders. It's common to see this market more accurately forecast outcomes as the event approaches, especially when factoring in late-breaking news.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth, or the number of contracts available at different price points, also influences price discovery. Higher volume at specific price levels indicates stronger conviction among traders.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which team James Harden officially signs with as reported by major sports news outlets and the NBA. The market will determine the winning outcome based on the team that is confirmed as his official new team at the time of resolution. Any trades or announcements made after the resolution date will not affect the outcome of this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any official news regarding James Harden’s trade requests, potential destinations, or contract negotiations will likely cause price fluctuations. Reports of interest from specific teams, comments from Harden or team executives, and even rumors from reliable sources can all move the market. Injuries to key players on potential landing spots, or major roster changes, could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected developments in the NBA landscape, such as a major trade involving another star player, could also shift probabilities.