TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 11:05 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Jaiba Brava and Alacranes, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different winning margins for Jaiba Brava and Alacranes in their scheduled Liga de Expansion MX soccer match on October 10, 2026. Four distinct outcomes are considered: Jaiba Brava winning by more than 2.5 goals, Jaiba Brava winning by more than 1.5 goals, Alacranes winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Alacranes winning by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions are based solely on the final score after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, with extra time and penalty kicks excluded from consideration. The event operates independently of the governing league, and all trademarks and brand names belong to their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of informed traders and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook line is inaccurate, they can create price pressure in this market, leading to odds that diverge from those offered elsewhere. It’s common to see differences, especially as new information emerges and impacts perceptions of the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on their analysis of the Jaiba Brava vs Alacranes match, leading to dynamic price movements. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will climb, and vice versa. This creates a real-time assessment of probabilities.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the Jaiba Brava vs Alacranes match, specifically the spread, will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing body of the league, ensuring a transparent and verifiable process. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will be paid out according to the market price at resolution.
Several signals could influence this market before Oct 11, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or even weather conditions impacting the game could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team lineups or key player availability would likely cause significant price movement. Public perception, fueled by expert analysis or media coverage, can also play a role. Major shifts in betting patterns or large volume trades on Kalshi could also indicate changing expectations and drive price fluctuations in this market.