TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:17 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a football game between Jacksonville and Cincinnati, focusing specifically on the margin of victory. It categorizes possible results based on how many points separate the winning team from the loser. The event resolves based on the final score of the game, including any overtime periods.
The event resolves based on the point differential between Jacksonville and Cincinnati in their Pro Football game scheduled for October 4, 2026, including any overtime periods. If Cincinnati wins by exactly 0 points (a tie), between 1 to 6 points, between 7 to 14 points, or 15 or more points, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Similarly, if Jacksonville wins by between 1 to 6 points, between 7 to 14 points, or 15 or more points, the respective market resolves to Yes. Each rule defines a specific range of point differentials that determine a Yes outcome for that particular market. The secondary rules clarify that Kalshi has no official affiliation with the Governing League and that all trademarks and brand names belong to their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a different set of information and participants than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd. You may find that the implied probabilities from this market diverge from sportsbook odds, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Polls and analysts’ predictions often align more closely with sportsbook lines, but this market offers a unique perspective based on financial incentives and direct forecasting.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final winning margin, as officially recorded, will determine the winning contract. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Jacksonville versus Cincinnati game, and any adjustments made by the relevant league authorities. Traders should ensure they understand the event details and potential for adjustments before participating in this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Jacksonville or Cincinnati teams would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also move the market. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic shifts announced before the game could also influence trader behavior. Finally, large-volume trades on Kalshi by informed participants could signal shifts in expectations and drive price changes in this market.