TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:34 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track rushing performance for specific players in an upcoming football game between Jacksonville and Cincinnati. Payouts increase progressively with higher rushing yard totals achieved by each designated player during the game.
Contracts pay based on the rushing yards accumulated by designated players in the specified game, using a tiered schedule where each 10-yard increment corresponds to a specific payout value. The payout formula calculates a scaled return using the cubic function of the player's rushing yards, capped at 200 yards. Each Yes contract's payout is determined by this formula, while each No contract pays the difference from $1.00, ensuring that Yes payouts do not exceed $1.00. Negative rushing totals result in a $0.00 payout for Yes contracts. The markets resolve to Yes upon official confirmation of the game results.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, often leading to more accurate probabilities than traditional sportsbook odds, which can be influenced by biases or marketing efforts. However, sportsbook odds are readily available and widely publicized, while this market requires active participation on Kalshi. It's common to see initial discrepancies, but as the event approaches, the prices on this market often converge with those found at sportsbooks as more information becomes available and traders refine their assessments.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yardage totals from the Jacksonville versus Cincinnati game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on the official statistics released by the NFL, ensuring an objective and transparent determination of the winning contracts. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future events based on the accuracy of the market's prediction.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports for key players on both the Jacksonville and Cincinnati teams are crucial, as a star running back's absence would dramatically shift expectations. Weather conditions on game day could also play a role, with rain or snow potentially favoring a more run-heavy offensive strategy. Finally, any late-breaking news regarding coaching decisions or changes in offensive play-calling could influence trader sentiment and cause the prices in this market to fluctuate considerably.