TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:37 PM EST
Kalshi
The markets focus on predicting whether specific players will achieve certain rushing yard thresholds in an upcoming football game. Each market corresponds to a different player and yardage benchmark, allowing participants to speculate on individual performance levels.
All markets resolve based on the total rushing yards accumulated by the specified player during the Jacksonville vs Cincinnati professional football game scheduled for October 4, 2026. If the player records the stated threshold or more rushing yards, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. If a player is active but does not take a snap, the market settles at the fair market price before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market settles based on the actual rushing yards recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all markets for both players, Chase Brown and Bhayshul Tuten, with varying yardage thresholds.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own insights. If a significant number of traders believe a different outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price will move accordingly. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public perception shifts regarding player injuries or game strategies.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yard totals. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on news, analysis, and their own predictions, leading to dynamic price movements. The more traders believe a particular rushing yard total is likely, the higher the price of the corresponding contract will climb.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final, official rushing yard totals for the Jacksonville versus Cincinnati game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official statistics released by the NFL following the completion of the game. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the actual total rushing yards will receive a payout, while those holding contracts predicting a different total will not. The exact payout will depend on the final price of the contract at resolution.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key running backs on either team would be a major catalyst. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if rain or snow is predicted, could also influence the expected rushing yard totals. Unexpected coaching decisions regarding offensive play-calling, or late-breaking reports on player matchups and defensive strategies, could all lead to shifts in the market price. Even significant media coverage or public sentiment could play a role in driving trading activity.