TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:44 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the performance of individual players in a specific football game, focusing on how many receiving yards each player accumulates. Participants bet on whether the players will achieve certain yardage thresholds, with payouts scaling based on actual performance. The structure allows for nuanced wagering on player statistics rather than overall game outcomes.
Each market operates as a scalar betting mechanism where Yes contracts pay proportionally to the receiving yards accumulated by the specified player, at a rate of $0.0025 per yard, capped at $1.00 for up to 400 yards. No contracts pay the remainder of the $1.00 stake not allocated to the Yes payout. Payouts are directly tied to the exact yardage recorded, meaning a player's performance determines the financial return for both Yes and No positions. For instance, if a player records 80 receiving yards, Yes contracts pay $0.20 while No contracts pay $0.80; at 200 yards, payouts split evenly at $0.50 each. The structure ensures that payouts scale linearly with performance, creating a direct financial incentive tied to statistical achievement rather than simple binary outcomes. All markets are independent and resolve based solely on the designated player's yardage in the specified game.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and perspectives beyond those considered by traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbook odds are set by professional oddsmakers, this market allows anyone to participate and express their beliefs, potentially leading to different probabilities. You may find that the implied probabilities in this market align with, or diverge from, those offered by sportsbooks depending on public sentiment and available information. It's useful to compare both to form a well-rounded view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for total receiving yards. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, indicating the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, and the prices reflect their expectations. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will rise, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final receiving yard totals for the Jacksonville vs Cincinnati game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official NFL statistics will be used to determine the actual receiving yardage achieved by the players involved. The market will then settle based on which yardage ladder outcome was surpassed or not surpassed during the game. Traders will be able to see the final results reflected in their account balances.
Several factors could influence the prices in this market leading up to the game. Any news regarding injuries to key wide receivers or tight ends on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions that might favor passing or running, could also impact trading activity. Unexpected news about defensive strategies or player matchups could also shift expectations. Finally, large-volume trades from informed participants could quickly alter the prices in this market.