TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:49 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track receiving yard performance for individual players in a specific football game, with payouts scaling non-linearly based on yardage milestones. Each player's contract value increases progressively as their receiving yards exceed set thresholds, capped at a maximum payout.
Each market resolves based on the official receiving yards accumulated by the specified player in the Jacksonville vs Cincinnati Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 4, 2026. Yes contracts pay according to a tiered schedule where each 10-yard increment above zero increases the payout, following a cubic scaling formula that caps at $1.00 for 200 or more yards. The payout formula calculates a scaled value y from the official yards s, applying floor division and cubic scaling before dividing by 10000 to determine the Yes payout. No contracts pay the difference between $1.00 and the Yes payout, with negative yardage resulting in zero payout for Yes contracts. All markets resolve to Yes upon determination of the official statistics, with Kalshi explicitly disclaiming affiliation with the governing league.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven by individuals trading on their own information and beliefs. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Examining these differences can offer insights into where the market perceives an edge or disagreement with conventional wisdom regarding the Jacksonville vs Cincinnati matchup.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential receiving yardage outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the collective expectation of the total receiving yards in the game. The current price movements indicate what the market believes is most likely to happen, offering a dynamic assessment of the game’s potential.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage totals from the Jacksonville vs Cincinnati game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final receiving yards for each team will be aggregated to determine the winning contract. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome for all traders participating in this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key wide receivers or tight ends on either the Jacksonville or Cincinnati teams would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions expected to affect passing offenses, could also move the market. Additionally, late-breaking news about defensive strategies or coaching decisions could influence traders' expectations and shift the probabilities associated with different receiving yardage totals. Monitoring these signals is crucial for informed trading.