TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:39 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks passing yard milestones for quarterbacks in a specific football game, allowing participants to speculate on whether certain yardage thresholds will be met by named players.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified quarterback achieves the exact passing yard threshold stated in the primary rule during the game. If a quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if that play is nullified by a penalty—the market settles strictly according to the actual passing yards recorded during the game. All markets are independent and resolve solely based on the named player's performance, with no consideration for opposing team actions or game outcomes beyond the yardage criteria.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. If a significant number of people believe a particular outcome is more likely than a sportsbook suggests, the price in this market will adjust accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing yard totals. The price of each contract indicates the probability of that specific yardage range occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a certain outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the collective intelligence of participants. The current price reflects the aggregated beliefs of all traders on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final official passing yardage for the Jacksonville vs Cincinnati game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official statistics released by the NFL will be the basis for determining the winning contracts. The market will settle to the contract closest to the actual passing yards, determining which traders correctly predicted the outcome. The resolution process will be transparent and based on publicly available data.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly wind or rain, could also impact passing yardage expectations. Even late-breaking reports about team strategies or defensive matchups could shift trader sentiment. Furthermore, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create price fluctuations as traders react to new information or adjust their positions.