TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 2:58 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how many passing touchdowns they achieve. Bettors can speculate on whether a player will reach certain thresholds of scoring passes during the match.
All markets resolve based on the number of passing touchdowns recorded by either Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence in the specified game. If a quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap — even if that play is nullified by a penalty — the market resolves according to the actual passing touchdowns recorded during the game. Each market has a specific threshold (ranging from 1 to 5 passing touchdowns), and if the player meets or exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes.' The markets are independent, allowing for varied betting on different performance levels for each quarterback.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert opinions, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and real-time adjustments as traders buy and sell contracts. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly as new information emerges, such as player injuries or weather forecasts. These differences can present opportunities for arbitrage, where traders attempt to profit from the price variations between the two types of markets.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final number of passing touchdowns scored during the Jacksonville versus Cincinnati game will be used to determine the winning contract. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring accuracy and transparency. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results to understand the market's outcome and any potential payouts.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Any news regarding the starting quarterbacks for either team, such as injuries or changes in playing status, would likely cause substantial movement. Weather conditions, particularly strong winds or heavy rain, could affect passing game strategies and, consequently, the market prices. Unexpected changes in team formations or play-calling tendencies, as well as any significant in-game events like early turnovers, could also influence trading activity and shift the probabilities reflected in this market.