TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 2:17 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how often their passes are intercepted by the opposing team. It examines the defensive prowess of the teams involved through the lens of turnovers generated from aerial plays.
The event evaluates whether designated quarterbacks, Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence, record specified minimum numbers of passing interceptions in the Jacksonville vs Cincinnati Pro Football game scheduled for October 4, 2026. Each market corresponds to a particular threshold of interceptions (1+, 2+, or 3+) for each quarterback. If a quarterback is active for the game but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if that play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves strictly based on the actual number of interceptions recorded during the game. These rules ensure fair resolution accounting for player participation status and in-game actions, while clarifying that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the governing league or its intellectual properties.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe an outcome is more or less likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price of contracts in this market will adjust accordingly. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different numbers of passing interceptions. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective probability assessment of that specific outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will fluctuate, providing a real-time indication of expectations. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay or receive for a contract tied to a specific interception count.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final number of passing interceptions thrown in the Jacksonville versus Cincinnati game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, and the market will settle to the contract corresponding to the actual number of interceptions thrown during the game. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout based on the contract’s price at resolution.
Several factors could influence this market. Any news regarding the quarterbacks’ health or playing status for either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to be windy or rainy, could also impact passing frequency and, therefore, interception rates. Additionally, late-breaking reports about defensive strategies or key matchups could shift traders’ expectations. Finally, general public sentiment and analysis from sports commentators can also play a role in shaping the market’s price.