TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 3:16 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how many times they successfully connect with their receivers. The outcome depends on whether each player meets or exceeds predetermined completion thresholds during the match. These benchmarks help assess the effectiveness of each quarterback's performance.
All markets resolve based on the total number of passing completions achieved by the named quarterback—Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence—during the Jacksonville vs. Cincinnati Professional Football game scheduled for October 4, 2026. For any market, if the specified quarterback is active for the game but does not take a single snap, the market settles at its fair market price determined immediately before the game begins. However, once the quarterback takes at least one snap—even if that play is later nullified by a penalty—the market resolves strictly according to the actual number of completions recorded during the game. Each market has a distinct threshold (e.g., 20+, 25+, etc. for Joe Burrow; 17+, 22+, etc. for Trevor Lawrence), and the market settles to 'Yes' only if the player meets or exceeds their respective target. The operator explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, which can differ from sportsbook odds that are initially set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public perception and risk management more heavily in their initial lines. This market, like others on Kalshi, allows for continuous price discovery as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions. While sportsbooks may adjust their lines closer to game time, the prediction market provides a dynamic view of probabilities throughout the trading period, potentially revealing insights not immediately captured by traditional odds.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular completion total, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity influence price fluctuations, providing a dynamic assessment of expectations. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded based on the final outcome of the game.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing completions achieved by both the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Cincinnati Bengals during the game will determine the market’s settlement. The official game statistics, as reported by a trusted sports data source, will be used to verify the outcome. Traders will then receive payouts based on their positions and the final result, reflecting the accuracy of their predictions in this market.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries to quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions expected to impact the passing game, such as strong winds or heavy rain, could also shift expectations. Additionally, late-breaking reports about team strategies or adjustments to offensive schemes could prompt traders to reassess probabilities. Unexpected announcements about starting lineups or changes in coaching decisions could also impact trading activity in this market.