TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates individual player and team defensive performances in an upcoming football game, focusing on whether specified athletes or units achieve certain fantasy point thresholds. The outcomes hinge on quantitative statistical benchmarks determined by a standardized scoring system applied to the contest's full duration, including any overtime periods.
All markets resolve based on fantasy points accumulated by specified players or defensive units during the full duration of the Jacksonville vs Cincinnati Pro Football game scheduled for October 4, 2026, including overtime. Fantasy points are calculated using Sleeper’s default full-PPR scoring system, with exact totals published by Sleeper at market expiration used for resolution—no post-expiration adjustments are applied. Players or units that do not participate or lack assigned fantasy-point values are treated as scoring zero. The scoring system awards points for various in-game achievements: passing, rushing, and receiving yards and touchdowns (with specific per-yard and per-touchdown values), interceptions, two-point conversions, receptions, kicking performances (field goals and extra points with distance-based valuations), and defensive/special teams contributions (touchdowns, sacks, interceptions, fumble recoveries, safeties, and blocked kicks). Defensive units also receive points based on opponent points allowed, with a decreasing scale from +10 for zero allowed down to −4 for 35+ allowed. Individual player special teams contributions and fumble outcomes also factor into scoring. Resolution occurs when Sleeper publishes final fantasy points at expiration, using these raw figures without rounding.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by experts. Sportsbooks may initially incorporate biases or react quickly to news, while this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. Over time, prediction market prices tend to be more accurate forecasts of the event's outcome than traditional polls or analyst predictions. However, sportsbook odds can be useful for understanding public perception and identifying potential value discrepancies in this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes – in this case, whether the total fantasy points scored in the Jacksonville vs Cincinnati game will be above or below a specific number. The price of each contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the likelihood of each outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market is constantly updating its forecast.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final fantasy point totals for players in the Jacksonville vs Cincinnati game will be sourced from official fantasy football providers and used to determine whether the market settles on the 'over' or 'under' side. The resolution will be based on the verified final statistics, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome for this market.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to its resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Jacksonville or Cincinnati teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in player matchups, weather forecasts impacting passing or rushing games, or even late-breaking news about team strategies could all shift probabilities. Analyst updates and public perception, as reflected in traditional fantasy football projections, can also influence trading activity in this market, potentially creating opportunities for informed traders. This market will resolve around Oct 4, 2026.