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Italy vs Turkiye: Spread
kalshi
predict

What is the result of Italy vs Turkiye?

Volume:
$403,709

Italy wins by more than 1.5 goals

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 4:40 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Italy wins by more than 1.5 goals

View
100%
57%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$258,643
N/A
N/A
$116,133
Settled
Yes
predict

Italy (-1.5)

View
91%
Yes 91¢No 9¢
—
$22,789
$4,537
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

O/U 2.5

View
99%
35%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$26,852
$17,671
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

O/U 3.5

View
99%
58%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$25,683
$4,725
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

O/U 1.5

View
99%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$25,298
$3,664
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Both Teams to Score

View
99%
43%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$22,552
$3,442
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

O/U 0.5

View
93%
3%
Yes 93¢No 7¢
—
$22,878
$6,252
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

O/U 4.5

View
3%
Yes 3¢No 97¢
—
$16,333
$2,389
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

O/U 5.5

View
2%
Yes 2¢No 98¢
—
$154
$2,379
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

O/U 6.5

View
2%
Yes 2¢No 98¢
—
$291
$62
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

O/U 8.5

View
2%
Yes 2¢No 98¢
—
$4,509
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

O/U 7.5

View
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$11,888
$75
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Italy (-4.5)

View
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$4,574
$1
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Türkiye (-1.5)

View
3%
Yes 3¢No 97¢
—
$7,019
$112
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Turkiye wins by more than 1.5 goals

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,709
N/A
N/A
$16,245
Settled
No
predict

Italy (-2.5)

View
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$6,324
$807
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Italy wins by more than 2.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$75,319
N/A
N/A
$30,500
Settled
No
kalshi

Turkiye wins by more than 2.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,871
N/A
N/A
$1,871
Settled
No
predict

Türkiye (-2.5)

View
N/A
N/A
—
$4,632
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Italy (-3.5)

View
N/A
N/A
—
$129
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Türkiye (-3.5)

View
N/A
N/A
—
$11,889
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Türkiye (-4.5)

View
N/A
N/A
—
$4,542
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Italy (-5.5)

View
N/A
N/A
—
$11,889
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Türkiye (-5.5)

View
N/A
N/A
—
$4,496
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 24

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of whether Italy will win the UEFA Nations League game against Türkiye by 3 or more goals. Currently, the consensus probability across Kalshi and Predict is 99.0% for Italy vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5. Resolution will be based on the official final score published on uefa.com, with Flashscore and Sofascore as secondary sources if needed. Keep an eye on the match itself, scheduled for October 5 at 2:45 PM ET, as the final score will determine the outcome of this market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Predict offers both sides of the spread (e.g., Italy -1.5 and Türkiye -1.5) while Kalshi only offers markets where one team wins by a specified margin.Hero tip: Consider the implied probabilities and potential payouts carefully, as the market structure differs between platforms. Kalshi's markets are essentially bets on a larger margin of victory.

Critical divergence points:

  • Predict: Offers a full suite of spread markets, requiring a win by a specific goal difference to resolve 'Yes'. For example, 'Italy (-1.5)' resolves 'Yes' if Italy wins by 2 or more goals. "If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50."
  • Kalshi: Offers markets based on a team winning by more than a specified goal difference. For example, 'Italy wins by more than 2.5 goals' resolves 'Yes' if Italy wins by 3 or more goals. "If Italy wins by more than 2.5 goals in the Italy vs Turkiye professional UEFA Nations League soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 5, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Kalshi

Market outcomes are contingent on the winning margin from the Italy vs Turkiye UEFA Nations League match occurring on October 5, 2026. Italy winning by more than 2.5 goals resolves the first market; a victory by more than 1.5 goals triggers the second. Turkiye must win by over 1.5 goals to satisfy the third market, and a margin exceeding 2.5 goals fulfills the fourth. Evaluations conclude after full time including stoppage minutes, but not after extra time or penalties.

Predict

More markets for the UEFA Nations League game, scheduled for October 5 at 2:45 PM ET.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi and Predict, this dashboard tracks the spread for the Italy vs Turkiye match, aggregating predictions from both platforms to provide a consensus view. Currently, the combined volume across both venues is $403,709, with $340,773 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows for a comprehensive look at where the crowd believes the outcome will land. The dashboard displays the probabilities implied by the trading activity on each platform, offering insight into market sentiment regarding the final score difference in this highly anticipated contest. It’s a central hub for monitoring predictions as they evolve.

Prediction market odds, like those found on Kalshi and Predict, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the wisdom of the crowd. Sportsbooks set lines based on internal models and aim to balance action on both sides, while prediction markets reflect the collective intelligence of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. This market’s implied probabilities can provide a valuable alternative perspective. Furthermore, prediction markets typically have lower transaction costs and allow participants to adjust their positions as new information becomes available, unlike fixed-odds betting. This dynamic can lead to more efficient price discovery.