TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 6:39 PM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Italy and Türkiye, scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Italy" if Italy score more goals than Türkiye in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Italy and Türkiye score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Türkiye" if Türkiye score more goals than Italy in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Italy and Türkiye, scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Italy" if Italy score more goals than Türkiye in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Italy and Türkiye score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Türkiye" if Türkiye score more goals than Italy in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance their risk and ensure profit, factoring in a 'vig' or commission. This market, however, is driven purely by what traders believe will happen, creating a more direct expression of forecast. Discrepancies can arise from differing information sources, biases, or simply the unique dynamics of each venue. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information than sportsbooks, though this isn't always the case.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the Italy vs. Türkiye second half. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people believe a particular outcome is likely, the price of shares representing that outcome increases. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price reflects the aggregated probability of the outcome as perceived by all participants trading on Polymarket.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Italy vs. Türkiye second half is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing sporting body. The platform will then verify the outcome against these sources to determine which shares will pay out. Traders who correctly predicted the result will receive a payout proportional to the amount they invested, while those who predicted incorrectly will lose their investment.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or even weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected performance in the first half of the match will likely have a significant impact. Furthermore, major shifts in public opinion, reflected in polls or expert analysis, could also drive price movements. The closer we get to Oct 5, 2026, the more sensitive the market will be to any new information that emerges.