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Italy vs. France - First Team to Score
polymarket

Italy vs. France - First Team to Score

Oct 30, 2026, 6:01 AM EST - Nov 12, 2026, 2:45 PM EST
Total volume:
N/A
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$64
27%
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Italy

 - Polymarket

Italy - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 12, 2026

Time left: 09d:11h:43m

Italy to score first vs. France?

47%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 93¢ buys you 108 shares | Odds: 47% Total Payout: $108 | Net Profit: $8 Multiplier: 1.08x | ROI: 8% High Projected APY: 1,793% Low liquidity 9 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Italy

Trade
47%
1%
Yes 93¢No 99¢
92¢
$22
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 11h
Active
polymarket

France

50%
Yes 95¢No 96¢
91¢
$19
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 11h
Active
polymarket

Neither

93%
2%
Yes 93¢No 53.5¢
—
$23
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 11h
Active
Total markets: 3

Description

In the upcoming UEFA Nations League match between Italy and France, originally scheduled for Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "Italy" if Italy are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "France" if France are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve to "Neither". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve to "Neither". The following abandonment rules apply only when this market's outcome was not already definitively determined under its rules before abandonment. If the game is abandoned, this market will resolve according to the official ruling of the governing body or event organizers on the abandoned game. If the result as played at the time of abandonment is declared to stand by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the game as played. If the game is replayed or resumed from the point of abandonment and has an official result by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the completed result. In any other case, including a result awarded that differs from the score as played, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor names, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences in a team's or player's name will not affect resolution, provided the intended team or player can be clearly and uniquely identified as a participant in the listed fixture or competition. If a listed name has no reasonable connection to any participant, or could reasonably refer to more than one participant such that the intended team or player cannot be determined, this market will resolve as it would if the listed fixture had been canceled entirely; a listed participant who cannot be identified does not count as inactive or absent. The primary resolution source for this market will be official match information from UEFA Nations League (https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/). If the governing body or event organizers have not published final statistics within 2 hours of the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve to "Neither".

Polymarket

In the upcoming UEFA Nations League match between Italy and France, originally scheduled for Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "Italy" if Italy are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "France" if France are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve to "Neither". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve to "Neither". The following abandonment rules apply only when this market's outcome was not already definitively determined under its rules before abandonment. If the game is abandoned, this market will resolve according to the official ruling of the governing body or event organizers on the abandoned game. If the result as played at the time of abandonment is declared to stand by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the game as played. If the game is replayed or resumed from the point of abandonment and has an official result by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the completed result. In any other case, including a result awarded that differs from the score as played, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor names, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences in a team's or player's name will not affect resolution, provided the intended team or player can be clearly and uniquely identified as a participant in the listed fixture or competition. If a listed name has no reasonable connection to any participant, or could reasonably refer to more than one participant such that the intended team or player cannot be determined, this market will resolve as it would if the listed fixture had been canceled entirely; a listed participant who cannot be identified does not count as inactive or absent. The primary resolution source for this market will be official match information from UEFA Nations League (https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/). If the governing body or event organizers have not published final statistics within 2 hours of the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve to "Neither".

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Italy vs. France first goal market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You can see how the implied probability of each outcome—either Italy or France scoring first—changes over time. The dashboard also displays the total volume traded on this market, currently at $0, and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of each team taking the early lead in the match.

Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance their risk, while this market allows traders to freely adjust probabilities based on their own analysis and information. If there’s a significant discrepancy, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by betting on both platforms. However, it's important to remember that both types of odds represent beliefs about the same underlying event, and differences can simply reflect varying levels of information or risk appetite among bettors.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular team, the price increases, reflecting a higher perceived chance of them scoring first. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s liquidity and trading volume influence how quickly prices adjust to new information, and the current top outcome, France to score first, has a chance percentage of 93.0%.

This market resolves around Nov 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the outcome will be determined by which team—Italy or France—scores the first goal in the match. The resolution will be based on official match data and will be publicly available. The platform will verify the result against established sports data sources to ensure accuracy and transparency, finalizing the outcome for all traders in this market.

Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Italy or France would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions on match day could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about starting lineups or pre-match interviews with coaches or players could provide new information that alters the perceived probabilities. Overall, any development that affects the perceived likelihood of either team scoring first has the potential to move this market.