TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 7:55 PM EST
Polymarket
This group centers around the NHL game between the New York Islanders and the Dallas Stars on October 25th. Markets cover both the winner of the game and the total number of goals scored.
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for October 25 at 6:00PM ET: If the Islanders win, the market will resolve to "Islanders". If the Stars win, the market will resolve to "Stars". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for October 25 at 6:00PM ET: If the Islanders win, the market will resolve to "Islanders". If the Stars win, the market will resolve to "Stars". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Predict, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the wisdom of the crowd and the incentive structure. Sportsbooks set odds to maximize profit, incorporating a margin for themselves, while prediction markets allow participants to directly bet against each other. This market benefits from a diverse range of opinions and expertise, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities. Furthermore, prediction markets can sometimes react more quickly to new information than sportsbooks, as the odds are continuously updated based on real-time trading activity. This can create opportunities for informed traders.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Predict can diverge for several reasons, including differences in user base, trading volume, and market-specific rules. Polymarket may attract a different type of trader than Predict, leading to varying perspectives on the Islanders vs. Stars game. Additionally, the liquidity and volume on each platform can influence price discovery. If one platform has significantly higher volume, its prices may be more efficient and reflective of the true probability. These differences highlight the value of aggregating data across multiple platforms to obtain a more comprehensive view.