TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Islanders vs. Sabres
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for March 31 at 7:00PM ET: If the Islanders win, the market will resolve to "Islanders". If the Sabres win, the market will resolve to "Sabres". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use different threshold interpretations for over/under markets. Kalshi's markets resolve YES if the threshold is exceeded (e.g., over 7.5 means 8+ goals), while Polymarket's markets resolve Over if the threshold is met or exceeded (e.g., O/U 5.5 resolves Over at 6+ goals). This creates a systematic 1-goal offset in how the same nominal threshold is settled.Hero Tip:
If you trade the same over/under line across both platforms, verify the exact goal threshold required for resolution. A 6-goal final score resolves YES on Kalshi's 5.5 market but Under on Polymarket's 5.5 market. Always cross-check the settlement description, not just the market name.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi's over/under markets resolve YES only when goals strictly exceed the stated threshold. For example, the 5.5 market resolves YES only if 6 or more goals are scored. The resolution rule states 'If over 5.5 total combined goals are scored... then the market resolves to Yes,' meaning the threshold must be surpassed, not met.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket's over/under markets resolve Over when goals meet or exceed a threshold that is 0.5 higher than Kalshi's equivalent. The O/U 5.5 market resolves Over if 'the Islanders and Sabres combine to score 6 or more goals,' but the O/U 4.5 market resolves Over if 'the Islanders and Sabres combine to score 5 or more goals.' This creates a consistent but offset resolution logic compared to Kalshi.
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