TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 10:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between two teams competing in a league game. The result depends solely on the final score after the standard playing time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts. Market participants can bet on either team winning or the match ending in a draw based on the official game result.
The event determines the winner of a professional Liga Leumit soccer match scheduled for October 9, 2026, between Ironi Modiin and Hapoel Afula. The market resolves based on the official result after 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Three possible outcomes are considered: a win for Ironi Modiin, a win for Hapoel Afula, or a tie. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price. The rules explicitly state that Kalshi is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own insights. As more information becomes available – such as team news or weather forecasts – the prediction market odds tend to converge towards a more accurate probability assessment. It’s common to see discrepancies initially, but this market often proves more accurate than traditional betting lines as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand; if more people buy contracts predicting a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the collective beliefs of all participants, creating a real-time assessment of probabilities. The current price indicates the cost to purchase a contract that pays out if that outcome occurs.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will reflect the official result of the Israeli Premier League match, as reported by official league sources. The contract corresponding to the winning outcome will pay out to its holders, while contracts for losing outcomes will expire worthless. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand when and how this market settles.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Ironi Modiin or Hapoel Afula would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in team form, such as a surprising win or loss in a recent match, could also shift sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions on match day could also influence the odds. Finally, any significant public announcements or expert analysis regarding the teams' chances of winning could contribute to movement in this market.