TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 10:42 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the outcome of the second quarter in an upcoming college football game between Iowa and Washington. Each market corresponds to different point spreads that either team needs to achieve by the end of that quarter to settle the bet.
These markets resolve based on the point differential between Iowa and Washington specifically during the second quarter of their college football game scheduled for October 9, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold for the winning margin required for a 'Yes' resolution, ranging from narrow to substantial point differentials in favor of either team. Only points scored in the second quarter count toward these outcomes. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, the markets remain active and resolve according to the official final result of that quarter. Should the game fail to start within the 48-hour window, all markets will resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the game's eventual commencement status.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a small team of experts, while this market is driven by many individual participants. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. These differences can stem from varying levels of information, analytical approaches, or simply differing opinions on the likely outcome of the game. Examining both can provide a more comprehensive view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. Traders set the odds by placing buy and sell orders, and the market price adjusts based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregate expectation of all traders, making it a dynamic and responsive indicator of potential outcomes for the Iowa vs Washington spread.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread for the second quarter of the Iowa vs Washington game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result announced by the governing body of college football, ensuring an objective and transparent determination. The contracts will then pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the range represented by the purchased contracts. This process ensures a clear and verifiable outcome for all participants in this market.
Several signals could influence the Iowa vs Washington spread between now and resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team strategy or coaching decisions could also shift market sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions on game day could also play a role, potentially favoring one team over the other. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself, indicating strong conviction from market participants, could also cause noticeable price movements in this market.