TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 12:34 AM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the outcome of the second half of a college football game between Iowa and Washington, specifically how many points one team will win by over the other in that half. The markets cover various point differentials, allowing participants to bet on different levels of victory margin for either team.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the second half (including overtime) of the Iowa vs Washington college football game scheduled for October 9, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold, with 'Yes' resolving if the winning team exceeds that margin by more than the stated points. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, markets remain open and resolve based on the final official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific outcome thresholds.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds to attract balanced betting and ensure profit, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – the odds on Kalshi will adjust, potentially diverging from sportsbook lines. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster and more efficiently than traditional sportsbooks in incorporating new data, offering a different perspective on the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second half. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that spread occurring. Buyers are essentially betting that the spread will be *less* than the contract price, while sellers are betting it will be *more*. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price discovery process is driven by supply and demand, with the most recent trades determining the current market price. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and trader sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread for the second half of the Iowa vs Washington game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of college football. The market will settle to 100 if the actual spread falls within the range of contracts traded, and to 0 for contracts on the losing side of the spread. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final outcome.
Several factors could significantly influence the Iowa vs Washington spread. Any news regarding key player injuries on either team would likely cause a shift in the odds, as would changes in weather forecasts that could affect the style of play. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before the game could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, significant betting activity – a large influx of buy or sell orders on Kalshi – could also drive price movements. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market before it resolves.