TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 1:44 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether BYU will win against Iowa State by more than 1.5 points in their upcoming college football game. Currently, the probability of BYU winning by over 1.5 points on Kalshi is 95.0%. The resolution source for this market is the final score of the Iowa St. vs BYU college football game originally scheduled for Oct 9, 2026. Traders should closely watch the outcome of the game itself, as the market will resolve based on the results reported after the game concludes on or around the resolution date of 2026-10-10.
All markets resolve based on the official final result of the Iowa St. vs BYU college football game scheduled for Oct 9, 2026. If BYU wins by a margin exceeding the specified threshold—for example, more than 35.5 points—the corresponding "BYU wins by over [X] points" market resolves to Yes, while all other markets resolve to No. Conversely, if Iowa St. wins by a margin exceeding its specified threshold—for example, more than 1.5 points—the corresponding "Iowa St. wins by over [X] points" market resolves to Yes, with all others resolving to No. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, all markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. Should the game fail to start within this window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific outcome thresholds.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds to balance action and ensure profit, while this market represents a collective forecast from individuals willing to put their money behind their beliefs. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – and as the event approaches, you may see convergence between this market and sportsbook odds. However, discrepancies can persist due to differing information access or analytical approaches among participants.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders bid and ask for contracts representing different spread outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, leading to a dynamic price discovery process. The closer we get to the game, the more the price will likely reflect the perceived likelihood of each possible spread result.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the actual point difference between Iowa State and BYU at the conclusion of their game. The market will settle based on the official result reported by a trusted sports data source. Any potential overtime periods will be included in the final score used to determine the market’s outcome, ensuring a clear and definitive resolution.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Key injuries to starting players on either Iowa State or BYU would likely cause substantial movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse playing conditions, could also influence the spread. Unexpected news regarding team morale or coaching decisions might also play a role. Furthermore, any significant shifts in public perception, reflected in betting trends or expert analysis, could drive price adjustments in this market as traders react to new information.