TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 1:50 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks which team will score more points in the final quarter of an upcoming college football game between Iowa State and BYU. It focuses solely on the performance during the last 15 minutes of regulation time, ignoring any overtime periods. The outcome depends purely on who holds the scoring advantage in that specific segment of the game.
The market resolves based on which team scores more points during the fourth quarter of regulation play in the Iowa State vs BYU college football game scheduled for October 9, 2026, excluding any overtime periods. If Iowa State scores more fourth-quarter points, that market resolves to Yes. If BYU scores more fourth-quarter points, that market resolves to Yes. If both teams score an equal number of points in the fourth quarter, the tie market resolves to Yes. All markets remain active if the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price. Points scored in overtime do not count toward any outcome determination.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market’s price is driven purely by supply and demand from traders who are incentivized to be accurate in their predictions. If a significant number of traders believe one team is more likely to win the fourth quarter, the price for that outcome will increase, potentially moving beyond what sportsbooks are offering. This difference can present opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the fourth quarter winner. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, the price rises, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants, providing a real-time assessment of the likely winner.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The team leading at the end of the fourth quarter will be declared the winner for the purpose of this market. The resolution will be based on the official game results as reported by a trusted sports data source. Traders holding contracts on the winning team will receive a payout of 100 per share, while those holding contracts on the losing team will receive 0.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Iowa State or BYU teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team’s playing style, could also impact the market. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about team morale, coaching decisions, or strategic adjustments could shift trader sentiment and affect the price. Public perception, as reflected in polls or expert analyses, may also play a role, though the market is ultimately driven by trading activity.