TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 1:50 AM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory in the fourth quarter of a college football game between Iowa State and BYU. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded by either team to resolve as a win.
The markets resolve based on the point differential by which either Iowa State or BYU wins exclusively during the fourth quarter of play, excluding any overtime periods. For a market to resolve as 'Yes,' the winning team must exceed the specified point spread threshold set in the market title during that quarter alone. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, the markets remain active and resolve according to the final official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets will resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the game's ultimate status.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. These differences can present opportunities for traders who believe the market has mispriced the probability of a particular outcome. Keep in mind that these are distinct markets with different dynamics.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that spread occurring in the fourth quarter of the Iowa State vs BYU game. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. The current price indicates what it costs to take a position on a specific spread, and changes based on supply and demand within the market.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the fourth quarter of the Iowa State vs BYU game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of college football. Once the game concludes and the official result is available, the contracts will be settled accordingly, and traders will receive or pay out funds based on their positions.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Iowa State or BYU teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to affect the style of play, could also move the market. Furthermore, any significant shifts in public perception or betting activity at sportsbooks could influence trader behavior on Kalshi, leading to price adjustments. Game-time decisions and in-game performance will also be key catalysts.