TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 12:50 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the total points scored by both Iowa State and BYU during the third quarter of their college football game. Participants predict whether the combined score will exceed specific thresholds. The outcome depends solely on the points accumulated in that quarter, regardless of the final game result.
The event determines whether the combined points scored by Iowa State and BYU in the third quarter of their college football game scheduled for October 9, 2026, exceed specified thresholds ranging from 2.5 to 27.5 points. Each market corresponds to a different threshold, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if the total points scored during the third quarter surpass the respective threshold. Only points scored in the third quarter count toward the resolution. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, the market remains active and resolves based on the official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, the market resolves to a fair price. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the collective wisdom of traders. If a significant number of traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price will move accordingly. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply a different interpretation of the event's probabilities. It's common to see this market offer insights that diverge from traditional betting lines.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 3rd quarter total. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the probability of the 'Yes' outcome (the total being over the implied line). On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy 'Yes' contracts, the price increases, indicating a growing belief that the total will exceed the implied line, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the aggregated predictions of all participants in the market.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final score of the 3rd quarter of the Iowa State vs BYU game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics, and the market will settle to 100 if the total points scored in the 3rd quarter are over the implied line, or to 0 if they are under. Traders holding contracts will receive payouts based on the final resolution value and their position in the market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Iowa State or BYU would likely have a significant impact, as it affects scoring potential. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the passing or running game, could also move the market. Finally, early game performance in the first and second quarters, and any shifts in offensive or defensive strategies, could lead traders to reassess their predictions and adjust their positions accordingly.