TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 12:50 AM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential specifically within the third quarter of an upcoming college football game. Each market corresponds to different thresholds of points by which either team could win that quarter, allowing participants to assess the potential scoring dynamics of a single game segment.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the third quarter of the Iowa St. vs BYU college football game scheduled for October 9, 2026. A market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified team wins the quarter by more than the stated point margin. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original start time, the markets remain active and resolve according to the official third-quarter result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants. The resolution hinges exclusively on third-quarter performance, with no consideration given to the full-game outcome.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by professional oddsmakers, while this market is driven by the collective predictions of individual traders. It's common to see initial discrepancies, but as the event approaches, this market tends to converge with sportsbook lines, though it may still offer unique insights based on diverse information and analysis. Comparing the two can be a useful strategy for informed decision-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the third quarter of the Iowa State vs BYU game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome, leading to a dynamic and informative price discovery process. The more traders believe a certain spread is likely, the higher the price of contracts representing that spread will climb.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread for the third quarter of the Iowa State vs BYU game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of college football. The platform will then determine the winning contracts based on whether the actual spread falls within the range specified by each contract. The process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Iowa State or BYU teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also shift the market. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could prompt traders to adjust their predictions. Public sentiment, as reflected in polls or expert analyses, might also contribute to price fluctuations as traders react to new information.