TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 11:02 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting the outcome of the first quarter in an upcoming college football game between Iowa State and BYU. Specifically, it evaluates whether either team will achieve a significant lead within the first 15 minutes of play.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the first quarter of the Iowa State vs BYU college football game scheduled for October 9, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if BYU wins by more than 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points, or if Iowa State wins by more than 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points during that period. Only points scored in the first quarter count. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the market remains open and resolves based on the actual result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, the market resolves to a fair price. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or breaking news. Comparing this market to sportsbook lines can offer a broader perspective on the likely outcome and potentially identify advantageous trading opportunities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders are rewarded and those with inaccurate views risk losing capital. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to converge towards a fair and efficient assessment of the event's outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread of the first quarter of the Iowa State vs BYU game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The official result will be sourced from established sports data providers and will be used to settle all outstanding contracts on Kalshi.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Iowa State or BYU teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to impact the game, could also shift the market. Additionally, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale could affect trader sentiment and lead to price fluctuations. Public perception and betting trends, as reflected in sportsbook odds, can also play a role.