TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 9:14 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the first half of an upcoming college football game. Bettors can choose from various thresholds to speculate on whether the winning team will cover specific margins within the first half of play.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the first half of the Iowa St. vs Arizona college football game scheduled for Oct 24, 2026. Each market has a specific point differential threshold; if the winning team exceeds that threshold in the first half, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise No. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, markets remain open and resolve based on the official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, all markets resolve to a fair price. No affiliation with the NCAA is claimed, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and often align closely with those offered by sportsbooks. However, differences can emerge due to varying levels of information and incentives among participants. Sportsbooks incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while Kalshi allows traders to directly express their beliefs, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities. It’s common to see this market and sportsbook lines converge as the event approaches, with both influenced by new information and betting activity.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the Iowa State vs Arizona spread. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set prices accurately, as they profit from correctly predicting the event's outcome. The current top market on Kalshi is for Arizona wins 1H by over 6.5 points, though probabilities are subject to change based on trading activity.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread in the first half of the Iowa State vs Arizona game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The official result, as determined by sports data providers, will be the basis for settlement. Traders holding contracts on the correct side of the spread will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect side will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Iowa State or Arizona teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team performance during recent games, weather forecasts for the game location, and even public sentiment expressed on social media can all impact trading activity. Unexpected line movements from sportsbooks could also prompt traders to reassess their positions, leading to shifts in the price of contracts on Kalshi.