TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 5:32 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks various margin-based outcomes for an upcoming soccer match between Internacional and Botafogo. It focuses on the difference in goals scored by the two teams at the end of regular time, without considering extra time or penalty shootouts. The event evaluates whether each team secures a win by a specific goal margin.
The event evaluates multiple outcome scenarios for the Internacional vs Botafogo Brasileiro Serie A soccer match scheduled for October 24, 2026. All resolutions are determined solely by the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded from consideration. Four distinct criteria are assessed: Internacional winning by more than 2.5 goals, Internacional winning by more than 1.5 goals, Botafogo winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Botafogo winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each criterion functions independently, meaning the market resolves to 'Yes' for any individual rule that is satisfied based on the final score. The rules are strictly focused on goal differential thresholds and do not account for other match factors such as yellow/red cards, substitutions, or coaching decisions. Kalshi explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks referenced belong to their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of participants, potentially differing from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on models and their own risk assessment, while this market is driven by individuals trading on their own insights. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly favors one outcome. These differences can present opportunities for arbitrage, where traders attempt to profit from the price variations between the two types of markets. However, it's important to note that both types of odds represent probabilities of an event occurring.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, similar to a stock exchange. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes in the Internacional vs Botafogo match, and the price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people buy contracts predicting a specific outcome, the price increases, reflecting a higher implied probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregate assessment of all traders participating in this market, offering a unique perspective on the potential result of the event. The market’s depth and volume indicate the level of confidence participants have in their predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Internacional vs Botafogo match, specifically the spread as determined by official sources. The platform will verify the outcome against publicly available data to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 25, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, or changes in coaching staff for either Internacional or Botafogo could significantly shift market sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions or referee announcements could also play a role. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could indicate new information or a change in expectations. Monitoring these signals and analyzing their potential impact on the match outcome is key to understanding potential price movements in this market.